Closing spread
PK
Total
33
Model margin
+2.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.177
- 41.6%Success rate35.3%
- -0.044EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.219
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- 38.2%Third-down rate29.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.09Points / drive0.82
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. CAR are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 20/34 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 6 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 12/19 | 136 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 24 | 84 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.16