Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
42
Model margin
+5.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.004
- 40.8%Success rate45.3%
- -0.062EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.005EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.71CPOE-1.40
- 31.6%Third-down rate42.2%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.70Points / drive1.87
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/33 | 196 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 3 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 24/33 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 9 | 9 | 128 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.51
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.14