2022 · Week 11

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

3·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -13

Total

42

Model margin

+5.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapRavens
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.004
  • 40.8%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.005EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -4.71CPOE-1.40
  • 31.6%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.87
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W8BAL @ CAR21–36CAR
2014 · W4CAR @ BAL10–38BAL
2010 · W11BAL @ CAR37–13BAL
2006 · W6CAR @ BAL23–21CAR
2002 · W1BAL @ CAR7–10CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–BAL
BALQ1 15:00637Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:30719Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:303-4Punt0–0
CARQ1 5:1835Punt0–0
BALQ1 3:45626Punt0–0
CARQ2 14:5236Punt0–0
BALQ2 12:35622Turnover0–0
CARQ2 9:19933Punt0–0
BALQ2 3:381476Field goal0–3
CARQ3 15:0034Punt0–3
BALQ3 13:4131Punt0–3
CARQ3 11:22928Field goal3–3
BALQ3 8:07949Punt3–3
CARQ3 3:53633Punt3–3
BALQ3 0:271172Field goal3–6
CARQ4 8:2724Turnover3–6
BALQ4 8:14330Touchdown3–13
CARQ4 7:164-5Turnover on downs3–13
BALQ4 5:2645Punt3–13
CARQ4 4:31523Turnover3–13
BALQ4 3:283-5Punt3–13
CARQ4 1:52655Turnover3–13
BALQ4 0:4300End of half3–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3319602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman11242.20
Baker Mayfield2126.00
Chuba Hubbard400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrace Marshall Jr.36760
Shi Smith45260
Chuba Hubbard23250
Ian Thomas34240
DJ Moore35240
Raheem Blackshear23140
Laviska Shenault Jr.4470
D'Onta Foreman0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson24/3320901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake10464.60
Lamar Jackson11312.81
Justice Hill7304.30
Patrick Ricard144.00
Devin Duvernay144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demarcus Robinson991280
Mark Andrews68630
Justice Hill3380
Kenyan Drake2470
Devin Duvernay1130
Josh Oliver1120
Isaiah Likely1310
James Proche0200
Mike Davis11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.51
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.14