Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.069
- 44.6%Success rate44.2%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.149
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- -1.27CPOE-0.77
- 41.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.63Points / drive2.21
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/25 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 6/9 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Darrin Reaves | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tauren Poole | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrin Reaves | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/31 | 327 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 10 | 139 | 2 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.08