2010 · Week 11

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

37·13

Panthers

Carolina

QB Brian St. Pierre

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -13

Total

37

Model margin

+1.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPanthers
  • +0.028EPA / play-0.249
  • 41.8%Success rate33.5%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.215
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.93CPOE-7.94
  • 38.4%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 1.78Points / drive0.77
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. CAR are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11CAR @ BAL3–13BAL
2018 · W8BAL @ CAR21–36CAR
2014 · W4CAR @ BAL10–38BAL
2006 · W6CAR @ BAL23–21CAR
2002 · W1BAL @ CAR7–10CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CAR
CARQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:59250Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 12:26831Punt7–0
BALQ1 8:331384Field goal10–0
CARQ1 1:15553Field goal10–3
BALQ2 13:391266Turnover10–3
CARQ2 7:1833Punt10–3
BALQ2 5:24851Touchdown17–3
CARQ2 1:5731Punt17–3
BALQ2 1:0817Turnover17–3
CARQ2 0:533-2Punt17–3
BALQ3 15:0033Field goal20–3
CARQ3 13:5848Field goal20–6
BALQ3 11:4932Punt20–6
CARQ3 10:4234Punt20–6
BALQ3 9:39629Punt20–6
CARQ3 6:04632Punt20–6
BALQ3 3:01618Punt20–6
CARQ3 0:13386Touchdown20–13
BALQ4 14:44411Punt20–13
CARQ4 11:3938Punt20–13
BALQ4 9:40648Field goal23–13
CARQ4 5:553-1Opp touchdown30–13
CARQ4 4:5910Opp touchdown37–13
CARQ4 4:48518Punt37–13
BALQ4 2:0259Punt37–13
CARQ4 0:45222End of half37–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco24/3330110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice19653.41
Willis McGahee8232.90
Donte' Stallworth177.00
Joe Flacco100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh22791
Todd Heap56690
Ray Rice67660
Derrick Mason36420
Anquan Boldin34290
Donte' Stallworth11150
Ed Dickson0200
Willis McGahee22-100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian St. Pierre13/2817312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Goodson221205.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Gettis24921
Steve Smith47460
Mike Goodson56310
Jeff King2240
Dante Rosario0400
David Clowney0100
Devin Thomas0100
Gary Barnidge0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -134.1%2.8%7.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.29
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.60