Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
37
Model margin
+1.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play-0.249
- 41.8%Success rate33.5%
- +0.133EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.215
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.93CPOE-7.94
- 38.4%Third-down rate30.0%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 1.78Points / drive0.77
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. CAR are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 24/33 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 2 | 79 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian St. Pierre | 13/28 | 173 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Goodson | 22 | 120 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Gettis | 2 | 4 | 92 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.60