Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.067
- 45.8%Success rate48.0%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.086
- +0.003EPA / rush+0.033
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- -3.77CPOE+2.75
- 45.4%Third-down rate42.1%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 2.01Points / drive2.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. CAR are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/39 | 192 | 1 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4/5 | 46 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 5 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| John Brown | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/29 | 219 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 6 | 90 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.51