2018 · Week 8

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

21·36

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPanthers
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.067
  • 45.8%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.086
  • +0.003EPA / rush+0.033
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -3.77CPOE+2.75
  • 45.4%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. CAR are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11CAR @ BAL3–13BAL
2014 · W4CAR @ BAL10–38BAL
2010 · W11BAL @ CAR37–13BAL
2006 · W6CAR @ BAL23–21CAR
2002 · W1BAL @ CAR7–10CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CAR
BALQ1 15:001280Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 7:50728Punt7–0
BALQ1 4:3149Punt7–0
CARQ1 2:50454Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 0:362-5Turnover7–7
CARQ2 14:53312Touchdown7–14
BALQ2 13:25631Punt7–14
CARQ2 9:481099Touchdown7–21
BALQ2 3:451330Turnover7–21
CARQ2 0:52540Field goal7–24
CARQ3 15:00617Punt7–24
BALQ3 11:47619Turnover on downs7–24
CARQ3 10:1936Punt7–24
BALQ3 8:01628Turnover7–24
CARQ3 5:31423Field goal7–27
BALQ3 2:581075Touchdown14–27
CARQ3 0:10985Touchdown14–33
BALQ4 9:523-6Punt14–33
CARQ4 8:511124Field goal14–36
BALQ4 3:10764Touchdown21–36
CARQ4 1:0200End of half21–36

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3919212
Lamar Jackson4/54610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins11494.51
Lamar Jackson3268.70
Joe Flacco2147.00
Gus Edwards2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead511540
Michael Crabtree35310
Mark Andrews45310
Hayden Hurst23291
John Brown37280
Chris Moore22190
Javorius Allen35181
Alex Collins22140
Nick Boyle1370
Gus Edwards1170

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/2921920
Taylor Heinicke1/11300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton10525.21
Christian McCaffrey14453.21
DJ Moore23919.50
C.J. Anderson5204.00
Taylor Heinicke2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore56900
Greg Olsen44561
Curtis Samuel33280
Devin Funchess33270
Ian Thomas11150
Christian McCaffrey46111
Jarius Wright2350
Damiere Byrd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.51