Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.044
- 39.9%Success rate45.3%
- -0.078EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.085
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.80CPOE+5.38
- 36.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.44Points / drive1.98
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 20/28 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/36 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35