2014 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

10·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBengals
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.019
  • 44.0%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.020
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.47CPOE+0.60
  • 44.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.86
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7ATL @ CIN17–35CIN
2018 · W4CIN @ ATL37–36CIN
2010 · W7CIN @ ATL32–39ATL
2006 · W8ATL @ CIN29–27ATL
2002 · W3CIN @ ATL3–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CIN
ATLQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:161264Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 5:19935Field goal3–3
CINQ1 1:08454Missed field goal3–3
ATLQ2 14:5034Punt3–3
CINQ2 13:20854Missed field goal3–3
ATLQ2 9:37414Punt3–3
CINQ2 7:311091Touchdown3–10
ATLQ2 2:11627Punt3–10
CINQ2 0:51630Missed field goal3–10
CINQ3 15:0032Punt3–10
ATLQ3 13:3937Punt3–10
CINQ3 12:10380Touchdown3–17
ATLQ3 10:5810Turnover3–17
CINQ3 10:42843Touchdown3–24
ATLQ3 6:281169Turnover3–24
CINQ3 1:39829Punt3–24
ATLQ4 12:341172Touchdown10–24
CINQ4 8:3539Punt10–24
ATLQ4 6:12511Punt10–24
CINQ4 4:29517Punt10–24
ATLQ4 2:181052Turnover10–24
CINQ4 0:2400End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/4423113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson11464.20
Matt Ryan3289.30
Jacquizz Rodgers5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones713881
Roddy White59420
Harry Douglas48380
Devonta Freeman23220
Antone Smith24190
Levine Toilolo23130
Steven Jackson1170
Devin Hester1120
Jacquizz Rodgers0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton15/2325210
Mohamed Sanu1/15000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard27903.31
Jeremy Hill15744.91
Andy Dalton362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu34841
Giovani Bernard56790
Brandon Tate13500
Dane Sanzenbacher24420
Jermaine Gresham33250
Jeremy Hill22220
James Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.78