Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.019
- 44.0%Success rate42.0%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.020
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.47CPOE+0.60
- 44.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.86
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/44 | 231 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 13 | 88 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/23 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1/1 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 27 | 90 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 84 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| James Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.78