Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.036
- 43.4%Success rate42.3%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.038
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- 39.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.04Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. ATL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 10:01 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 9:07 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| CIN | Q1 7:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q1 5:25 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| CIN | Q1 1:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–13 |
| ATL | Q1 0:56 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CIN | Q2 12:37 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–13 |
| ATL | Q2 10:29 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CIN | Q2 7:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–13 |
| ATL | Q2 6:38 | 4 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| CIN | Q2 4:56 | 13 | 48 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| ATL | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| ATL | Q3 12:07 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| CIN | Q3 5:07 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 3–27 |
| ATL | Q3 2:18 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–27 |
| CIN | Q3 0:09 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 3–27 |
| ATL | Q4 13:09 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| CIN | Q4 7:30 | 7 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 3–30 |
| ATL | Q4 5:34 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–30 |
| CIN | Q4 2:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–30 |
| ATL | Q4 1:48 | 1 | 2 | Punt | 3–30 |
| CIN | Q4 0:37 | 3 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 3–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/35 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 0/7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/26 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Travis Jervey | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 6 | 7 | 77 | 2 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.36