2010 · Week 7

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

32·39

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+5.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.066
  • 44.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.066
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +0.88CPOE+0.37
  • 39.8%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.13
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. ATL are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7ATL @ CIN17–35CIN
2018 · W4CIN @ ATL37–36CIN
2014 · W2ATL @ CIN10–24CIN
2006 · W8ATL @ CIN29–27ATL
2002 · W3CIN @ ATL3–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00979Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:10625Punt0–7
ATLQ1 7:1549Punt0–7
CINQ1 4:46932Field goal3–7
ATLQ1 0:22749Field goal3–10
CINQ2 13:3030Punt3–10
ATLQ2 12:58579Touchdown3–17
CINQ2 11:06945Punt3–17
ATLQ2 6:361183Touchdown3–24
CINQ2 1:05741Missed field goal3–24
CINQ3 15:001059Field goal6–24
ATLQ3 9:34524Punt6–24
CINQ3 6:57693Touchdown13–24
ATLQ3 3:3932Turnover13–24
CINQ3 2:57362Touchdown19–24
ATLQ3 1:3815Opp touchdown25–24
ATLQ3 1:16874Touchdown25–32
CINQ4 13:02735Turnover25–32
ATLQ4 9:371048Touchdown25–39
CINQ4 4:331178Touchdown32–39
ATLQ4 1:3330Punt32–39
CINQ4 0:283-1End of half32–39

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer36/5041230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson20703.50
Bernard Scott11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Shipley661311
Chad Johnson10161081
Terrell Owens913881
Bernard Scott55430
Jermaine Gresham46260
Andre Caldwell11100
Cedric Benson1260

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3329931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner231215.32
Gartrell Johnson12323.00
Matt Ryan155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White11132012
Tony Gonzalez24270
Michael Jenkins36250
Michael Turner23230
Brian Finneran2281
Michael Palmer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.08