Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.066
- 44.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.066
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- +0.88CPOE+0.37
- 39.8%Third-down rate46.9%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.45Points / drive2.13
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. ATL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 36/50 | 412 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipley | 6 | 6 | 131 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 10 | 16 | 108 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 9 | 13 | 88 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/33 | 299 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 23 | 121 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 11 | 13 | 201 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Michael Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.08