Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.081
- 45.4%Success rate47.8%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.153
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.74CPOE+2.74
- 41.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.97Points / drive2.27
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. CIN are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 8/13 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 75 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 34/42 | 481 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 8 | 9 | 155 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8 | 11 | 130 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93