2018 · Week 4

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

37·36

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

52

Model margin

+4.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.083
  • 43.6%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.200
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.160
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -3.54CPOE+4.21
  • 36.9%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. ATL are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7ATL @ CIN17–35CIN
2014 · W2ATL @ CIN10–24CIN
2010 · W7CIN @ ATL32–39ATL
2006 · W8ATL @ CIN29–27ATL
2002 · W3CIN @ ATL3–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00850Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:27572Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 7:23842Turnover on downs7–7
CINQ1 3:41846Touchdown14–7
ATLQ1 0:121075Touchdown14–14
CINQ2 11:03575Touchdown21–14
ATLQ2 8:111079Touchdown21–21
CINQ2 2:55744Touchdown28–21
ATLQ2 0:44643Field goal28–24
CINQ3 15:003-6Punt28–24
ATLQ3 13:0833Field goal28–27
CINQ3 11:22836Punt28–27
ATLQ3 7:40522Punt28–27
CINQ3 4:52716Turnover28–27
ATLQ3 1:38649Touchdown28–33
CINQ4 14:251239Field goal31–33
ATLQ4 8:191166Field goal31–36
CINQ4 4:151785Touchdown37–36
ATLQ4 0:07266End of half37–36

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton29/4133731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard15694.62
Andy Dalton2136.50
Mark Walton591.80
Alex Erickson188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd11151000
A.J. Green48781
John Ross22521
Tyler Eifert44381
Mark Walton24280
Giovani Bernard44270
Alex Erickson1280
C.J. Uzomah1160
Tyler Kroft0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/3941930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman14513.60
Ito Smith7355.01
Matt Ryan252.50
Calvin Ridley111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9121730
Mohamed Sanu691110
Calvin Ridley46542
Tevin Coleman33260
Austin Hooper12190
Logan Paulsen11171
Ito Smith33130
Justin Hardy1140
Marvin Hall1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.55