Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+4.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.083
- 43.6%Success rate46.6%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.200
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.160
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.54CPOE+4.21
- 36.9%Third-down rate45.1%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 1.95Points / drive2.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. ATL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 29/41 | 337 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 11 | 15 | 100 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| John Ross | 2 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Mark Walton | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/39 | 419 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 12 | 173 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 9 | 111 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 54 | 2 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55