Closing spread
STL -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. STL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:54 | 6 | 56 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:30 | 6 | 14 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:14 | 7 | 15 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 13:23 | 2 | 46 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:33 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:45 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:22 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| KC | Q2 7:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:21 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 17–7 |
| KC | Q2 3:09 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:48 | 5 | 58 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 13:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–10 |
| KC | Q3 11:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 9:44 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| KC | Q3 3:50 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LA | Q3 0:23 | 9 | 66 | Punt | 24–17 |
| KC | Q4 10:00 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| LA | Q4 6:20 | 14 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 31–17 |
| KC | Q4 1:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 31–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:07 | 2 | 23 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 10/15 | 148 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 27 | 172 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.