Closing spread
STL -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. STL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 10/15 | 148 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 27 | 172 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.