Closing spread
LA -3
Total
63.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.236EPA / play+0.149
- 50.0%Success rate50.8%
- +0.349EPA / dropback+0.203
- +0.018EPA / rush+0.065
- 12.1%Explosive rate12.1%
- +4.64CPOE+1.24
- 47.8%Third-down rate45.0%
- 75.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 3.03Points / drive2.63
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. LA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 33/46 | 478 | 6 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 14 | 215 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 15 | 127 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 7 | 8 | 74 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 31/49 | 413 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 8 | 12 | 107 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 6 | 8 | 80 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 49 | 2 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.60