2018 · Week 11

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

51·54

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

63.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRams
  • +0.236EPA / play+0.149
  • 50.0%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.349EPA / dropback+0.203
  • +0.018EPA / rush+0.065
  • 12.1%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +4.64CPOE+1.24
  • 47.8%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 75.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 3.03Points / drive2.63
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 59.6 points. LA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12LA @ KC10–26KC
2014 · W8STL @ KC7–34KC
2010 · W15KC @ STL27–13KC
2006 · W9KC @ STL31–17KC
2002 · W14STL @ KC10–49KC
2000 · W8STL @ KC34–54KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LA
LAQ1 15:00859Touchdown0–6
KCQ1 12:00417Punt0–6
LAQ1 9:561169Touchdown0–13
KCQ1 5:35475Touchdown7–13
LAQ1 3:25942Field goal7–16
KCQ2 14:541278Field goal10–16
LAQ2 8:043-4Turnover16–16
KCQ2 6:37121Touchdown17–16
LAQ2 6:28529Punt17–16
KCQ2 4:0458Opp touchdown17–23
KCQ2 1:50769Touchdown23–23
LAQ2 0:1300End of half23–23
KCQ3 15:00520Turnover23–23
LAQ3 13:27846Touchdown23–30
KCQ3 10:52864Touchdown30–30
LAQ3 7:09850Field goal30–33
KCQ3 2:2410Opp touchdown30–40
KCQ3 2:1431Punt30–40
LAQ3 0:58516Punt30–40
KCQ4 13:32391Touchdown37–40
LAQ4 12:043-13Opp touchdown44–40
LAQ4 11:07675Touchdown44–47
KCQ4 9:3837Punt44–47
LAQ4 8:0939Punt44–47
KCQ4 6:33855Touchdown51–47
LAQ4 2:47675Touchdown51–54
KCQ4 1:49426Turnover51–54
LAQ4 1:1834Punt51–54
KCQ4 0:50414Turnover51–54
LAQ4 0:1300End of half51–54

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes33/4647863

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14705.00
Patrick Mahomes6284.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill10142152
Travis Kelce10151271
Chris Conley78742
Kareem Hunt34411
Demarcus Robinson12140
Sammy Watkins1140
Demetrius Harris1230

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff31/4941340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley12554.60
Malcolm Brown4153.80
Jared Goff461.51
Brandin Cooks100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks8121070
Josh Reynolds68801
Robert Woods411721
Tyler Higbee67630
Gerald Everett34492
Todd Gurley33390
KhaDarel Hodge1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.60