Closing spread
STL -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. STL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/29 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 11 | 126 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 62 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.