Closing spread
STL -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- QuestionableMatt CasselQBIllness· Limited
Rams
- OutMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDavid NixonLBHand· Limited
- QuestionableKenneth DarbyRBChest· Limited
- ProbableDonnie JonesPIllness· Full
- ProbableJacob BellGKnee· Full
- ProbableRon BartellCBNeck· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. STL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 6:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 6:11 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| KC | Q1 4:43 | 7 | 7 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LA | Q1 1:08 | 7 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| KC | Q2 13:52 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 12:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| KC | Q2 10:50 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 6:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| KC | Q2 5:47 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| LA | Q2 1:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–6 |
| KC | Q2 1:03 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 14–6 |
| LA | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| LA | Q3 10:18 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 17–6 |
| KC | Q3 6:57 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–6 |
| LA | Q3 5:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–6 |
| KC | Q3 3:52 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 17–6 |
| LA | Q3 0:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–6 |
| KC | Q4 14:51 | 4 | 34 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| LA | Q4 12:20 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 20–6 |
| KC | Q4 11:08 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 20–6 |
| LA | Q4 8:27 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| KC | Q4 4:04 | 2 | 82 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| LA | Q4 3:26 | 4 | -10 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| KC | Q4 2:36 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 27–13 |
| LA | Q4 1:51 | 2 | 25 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| KC | Q4 1:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/29 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 11 | 126 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 62 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.