Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. KC are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/29 | 223 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Knile Davis | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.