Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutBrandon McGeeCBFoot· DNP
- OutTim BarnesCShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJanoris JenkinsCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableTrumaine JohnsonCBKnee· Full
- ProbableGreg ZuerleinKIllness· DNP
- ProbableBenny CunninghamRBKnee· Full
- ProbableEthan WestbrooksDEHand· Full
- ProbableJo-Lonn DunbarLBToe· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableRodger SaffoldTKnee· Full
- ProbableT.J. McDonaldSConcussion· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEIllness· Full
Chiefs
- OutChristopher OwensCBKnee· DNP
- OutDonnie AveryWRGroin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableEric BerrySAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJunior HemingwayWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableCyrus GrayRBHand· Full
- ProbableJustin HoustonLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableSean SmithCBGroin· Full
- ProbableTravis KelceTERibs· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. KC are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:56 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:51 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:47 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 2:37 | 11 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:00 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 7:56 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 7:46 | 3 | -12 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 5:32 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–16 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LA | Q3 14:48 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–17 |
| KC | Q3 13:09 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 8:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q3 7:09 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 4:19 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q3 1:25 | 5 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| LA | Q4 14:18 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–27 |
| KC | Q4 13:22 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| LA | Q4 6:28 | 13 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 7–34 |
| KC | Q4 2:35 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–34 |
| LA | Q4 0:17 | 1 | 12 | End of half | 7–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/29 | 223 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Knile Davis | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.