Closing spread
STL -7
Total
56
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. KC are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/30 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
| Warren Moon | 3/3 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 1/1 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 13 | 102 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Frank Moreau | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Elvis Grbac | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 9 | 117 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 8 | 117 | 1 |
| Sylvester Morris | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Kimble Anders | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.