Closing spread
STL -7
Total
56
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. KC are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 14:37 | 4 | 25 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 13:04 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 11:12 | 4 | 33 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 9:09 | 5 | 4 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| KC | Q1 6:14 | 4 | 33 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LA | Q1 4:33 | 4 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 0–20 |
| KC | Q1 2:56 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–20 |
| LA | Q1 2:56 | 15 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| KC | Q2 9:43 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| LA | Q2 6:49 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| KC | Q2 5:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–27 |
| LA | Q2 4:02 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–27 |
| KC | Q2 3:01 | 4 | 30 | Missed field goal | 14–27 |
| LA | Q2 1:52 | 6 | 65 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| KC | Q2 0:16 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–27 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| LA | Q3 13:30 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–34 |
| KC | Q3 8:50 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 21–34 |
| LA | Q3 5:55 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 21–34 |
| KC | Q3 2:55 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 21–40 |
| LA | Q3 1:26 | 3 | 34 | Touchdown | 28–40 |
| KC | Q3 0:18 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–40 |
| LA | Q4 14:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 28–40 |
| KC | Q4 13:38 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 28–47 |
| LA | Q4 10:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–47 |
| KC | Q4 8:30 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–54 |
| LA | Q4 5:27 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 34–54 |
| KC | Q4 2:53 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 34–54 |
| LA | Q4 0:50 | 3 | 20 | End of half | 34–54 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/30 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
| Warren Moon | 3/3 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 1/1 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 13 | 102 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Frank Moreau | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Elvis Grbac | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 9 | 117 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 8 | 117 | 1 |
| Sylvester Morris | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Kimble Anders | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.