Closing spread
KC -16.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.179
- 41.2%Success rate50.6%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.019
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.69CPOE+3.02
- 40.2%Third-down rate49.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 1.57Points / drive2.71
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 59.6 points. KC are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Perkins | 13/23 | 100 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Perkins | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jacob Harris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Lance McCutcheon | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/42 | 320 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.44