2022 · Week 12

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Bryce Perkins

10·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -16.5

Total

42

Model margin

+4.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.179
  • 41.2%Success rate50.6%
  • -0.094EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.019
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -2.69CPOE+3.02
  • 40.2%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.71
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 59.6 points. KC are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W11KC @ LA51–54RAMS
2014 · W8STL @ KC7–34KC
2010 · W15KC @ STL27–13KC
2006 · W9KC @ STL31–17KC
2002 · W14STL @ KC10–49KC
2000 · W8STL @ KC34–54KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–KC
KCQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:0534Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:233-2Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:009100Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 5:40946Field goal3–7
KCQ2 14:571366Field goal3–10
LAQ2 9:501028Punt3–10
KCQ2 3:161393Field goal3–13
LAQ2 0:1600End of half3–13
LAQ3 15:003-2Punt3–13
KCQ3 13:241271Touchdown3–20
LAQ3 6:321475Touchdown10–20
KCQ4 14:561368Turnover10–20
LAQ4 8:5024Turnover10–20
KCQ4 8:0935Field goal10–23
LAQ4 6:36416Turnover10–23
KCQ4 5:17816Field goal10–26
LAQ4 1:44630End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Perkins13/2310012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bryce Perkins9444.90
Cam Akers8374.60
Kyren Williams11353.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Van Jefferson36291
Kyren Williams33250
Tutu Atwell22230
Brycen Hopkins12120
Brandon Powell2260
Jacob Harris1160
Ben Skowronek2450
Lance McCutcheon0400

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/4232011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco22693.11
Patrick Mahomes4369.00
Ronald Jones4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce48571
Marquez Valdes-Scantling45560
JuJu Smith-Schuster33380
Skyy Moore56360
Jerick McKinnon36260
Justin Watson22260
Joseph Fortson23260
Ronald Jones11220
Isiah Pacheco11170
Noah Gray22160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.87
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.44