2006 · Week 10

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Charlie Frye

17·13

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -9

Total

42

Model margin

+4.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.197EPA / play-0.050
  • 38.3%Success rate39.9%
  • -0.178EPA / dropback-0.078
  • -0.231EPA / rush-0.021
  • 6.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.75CPOE-2.80
  • 34.0%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.44
  • 4.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4CLE @ ATL20–23ATL
2018 · W10ATL @ CLE16–28CLE
2014 · W12CLE @ ATL26–24CLE
2010 · W5ATL @ CLE20–10ATL
2002 · W17ATL @ CLE16–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00527Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:36613Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:11517Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:3338Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:1438Punt0–0
CLEQ1 3:42546Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 1:36527Turnover7–0
CLEQ2 14:51541Touchdown14–0
ATLQ2 11:59929Punt14–0
CLEQ2 7:52530Punt14–0
ATLQ2 3:5534Punt14–0
CLEQ2 2:3229Turnover14–0
ATLQ2 1:541048Field goal14–3
CLEQ2 0:0310Turnover14–3
CLEQ3 15:00421Punt14–3
ATLQ3 12:02936Punt14–3
CLEQ3 7:3535Punt14–3
ATLQ3 5:37539Turnover14–3
CLEQ3 3:383-1Punt14–3
ATLQ3 1:18212Touchdown14–10
CLEQ3 1:063-3Punt14–10
ATLQ4 14:263-1Punt14–10
CLEQ4 12:3335Punt14–10
ATLQ4 10:32526Field goal14–13
CLEQ4 8:52752Field goal17–13
ATLQ4 5:3534Punt17–13
CLEQ4 4:3438Punt17–13
ATLQ4 3:31455Turnover17–13
CLEQ4 2:1832Punt17–13
ATLQ4 0:17112End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Frye16/2216510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reuben Droughns21542.61
Charlie Frye4287.00
Dennis Northcutt177.00

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick16/4019712
Matt Schaub0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick77410.60
Warrick Dunn21733.50
Marlion Jackson122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.42