2018 · Week 10

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

16·28

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.009
  • 46.6%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.091
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +4.21CPOE-0.95
  • 45.1%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.75
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4CLE @ ATL20–23ATL
2014 · W12CLE @ ATL26–24CLE
2010 · W5ATL @ CLE20–10ATL
2006 · W10CLE @ ATL17–13CLE
2002 · W17ATL @ CLE16–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00421Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:07633Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:31888Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 4:361361Field goal3–7
CLEQ2 12:18742Turnover3–7
ATLQ2 8:30645Touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 5:04885Touchdown10–14
ATLQ2 0:55414End of half10–14
ATLQ3 15:00319Turnover10–14
CLEQ3 13:27641Touchdown10–21
ATLQ3 10:27421Punt10–21
CLEQ3 9:01292Touchdown10–28
ATLQ3 8:45517Punt10–28
CLEQ3 6:08933Punt10–28
ATLQ3 1:251167Turnover on downs10–28
CLEQ4 11:29423Punt10–28
ATLQ4 8:271369Touchdown16–28
CLEQ4 4:2434Punt16–28
ATLQ4 3:52836Turnover16–28
CLEQ4 1:1900End of half16–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan38/5233020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman11444.00
Matt Ryan3134.30
Ito Smith4112.80
Calvin Ridley133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones7111071
Austin Hooper1011561
Mohamed Sanu68470
Calvin Ridley35370
Tevin Coleman35190
Eric Saubert12170
Ito Smith45150
Logan Paulsen22130
Marvin Hall11120
Justin Hardy1170

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield17/2021630
Dontrell Hilliard0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb201768.81
Baker Mayfield6203.30
Duke Johnson3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Callaway22390
Breshad Perriman22330
Nick Chubb33331
Duke Johnson44311
Rashard Higgins11281
Jarvis Landry25220
David Njoku11180
Orson Charles1160
Dontrell Hilliard1160
Baker Mayfield0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.63