Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.009
- 46.6%Success rate42.8%
- +0.200EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.091
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- +4.21CPOE-0.95
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.34Points / drive1.75
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 38/52 | 330 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 11 | 107 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 10 | 11 | 56 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/20 | 216 | 3 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 176 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Callaway | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.63