Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.007
- 38.1%Success rate44.0%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -7.11CPOE+1.47
- 29.9%Third-down rate44.6%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.44Points / drive1.87
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 23/40 | 322 | 0 | 3 |
| Josh Gordon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Terrance West | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 8 | 16 | 120 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/43 | 273 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 9 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 13 | 68 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45