2014 · Week 12

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

26·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.007
  • 38.1%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.161
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -7.11CPOE+1.47
  • 29.9%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.87
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4CLE @ ATL20–23ATL
2018 · W10ATL @ CLE16–28CLE
2010 · W5ATL @ CLE20–10ATL
2006 · W10CLE @ ATL17–13CLE
2002 · W17ATL @ CLE16–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:4358Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:191152Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 5:531175Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 1:3331Turnover7–7
CLEQ2 14:54514Field goal10–7
ATLQ2 13:17517Turnover10–7
CLEQ2 11:15425Field goal13–7
ATLQ2 9:20747Punt13–7
CLEQ2 5:47736Turnover13–7
ATLQ2 2:52750Touchdown13–14
CLEQ2 0:55638Missed field goal13–14
CLEQ3 15:001066Field goal16–14
ATLQ3 9:46610Punt16–14
CLEQ3 5:44970Touchdown23–14
ATLQ3 0:461575Touchdown23–21
CLEQ4 9:31974Turnover23–21
ATLQ4 4:51517Punt23–21
CLEQ4 3:3738Turnover23–21
ATLQ4 2:42620Field goal23–24
CLEQ4 0:44561Field goal26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer23/4032203
Josh Gordon0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell12887.32
Terrance West14624.40
Brian Hoyer3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon8161200
Andrew Hawkins55930
Miles Austin68640
Gary Barnidge23230
Taylor Gabriel12130
Terrance West1190
Brian Hoyer0100
Jim Dray0100
Travis Benjamin0200
Ray Agnew0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/4327321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson13342.61
Jacquizz Rodgers3165.30
Devonta Freeman571.40
Matt Ryan263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White910960
Julio Jones513681
Devin Hester46500
Steven Jackson23170
Levine Toilolo23170
Harry Douglas24140
Jacquizz Rodgers33111
Devonta Freeman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45