2010 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

20·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Seneca Wallace

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.066EPA / play-0.077
  • 43.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.126
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +0.37CPOE+2.13
  • 46.9%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.31
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4CLE @ ATL20–23ATL
2018 · W10ATL @ CLE16–28CLE
2014 · W12CLE @ ATL26–24CLE
2006 · W10CLE @ ATL17–13CLE
2002 · W17ATL @ CLE16–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00319Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 13:5231Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:02421Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:54511Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:16610Punt0–0
ATLQ1 4:101143Field goal3–0
CLEQ2 14:49556Touchdown3–7
ATLQ2 12:191370Field goal6–7
CLEQ2 5:0038Punt6–7
ATLQ2 3:34455Missed field goal6–7
CLEQ2 1:42530End of half6–7
ATLQ3 15:00410Turnover6–7
CLEQ3 13:04522Field goal6–10
ATLQ3 9:57468Touchdown13–10
CLEQ3 7:57918Punt13–10
ATLQ3 4:4639Punt13–10
CLEQ3 3:04511Punt13–10
ATLQ4 14:46837Punt13–10
CLEQ4 9:08927Opp touchdown20–10
CLEQ4 4:011047Turnover20–10
ATLQ4 1:50437End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan16/2818710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner191407.40
Matt Ryan551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White581011
Tony Gonzalez58410
Harry Douglas22170
Justin Peelle12150
Michael Palmer11110
Brian Finneran0200
Michael Turner0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace11/1513910
Jake Delhomme13/239702
Josh Cribbs1/11000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis10282.80
Josh Cribbs2115.50
Jerome Harrison661.00
Jake Delhomme100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi56550
Chansi Stuckey58540
Peyton Hillis46491
Benjamin Watson57450
Robert Royal22130
Josh Cribbs1580
Evan Moore1270
Brian Robiskie1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.19
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09