Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.077
- 43.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.126
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.37CPOE+2.13
- 46.9%Third-down rate37.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.13Points / drive1.31
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/28 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 19 | 140 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 5 | 8 | 101 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 11/15 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 13/23 | 97 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09