2022 · Week 4

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

20·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.002
  • 44.1%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.001
  • +0.002EPA / rush+0.004
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.05CPOE-0.74
  • 39.0%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.97
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W10ATL @ CLE16–28CLE
2014 · W12CLE @ ATL26–24CLE
2010 · W5ATL @ CLE20–10ATL
2006 · W10CLE @ ATL17–13CLE
2002 · W17ATL @ CLE16–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–ATL
CLEQ1 15:00876Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 10:191384Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 3:36215Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 2:52331Touchdown0–10
CLEQ1 1:201675Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 7:3536Punt7–10
CLEQ2 6:311379Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 0:0700End of half10–10
ATLQ3 15:0034Punt10–10
CLEQ3 13:5838Punt10–10
ATLQ3 12:004-1Punt10–10
CLEQ3 10:3632Punt10–10
ATLQ3 9:32518Turnover10–10
CLEQ3 6:57616Field goal13–10
ATLQ3 3:061075Touchdown13–17
CLEQ4 12:51675Touchdown20–17
ATLQ4 9:51670Field goal20–20
CLEQ4 7:19731Punt20–20
ATLQ4 3:35549Field goal20–23
CLEQ4 2:28926Turnover20–23
ATLQ4 0:5500End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3523401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb191186.21
Kareem Hunt10494.90
Jacoby Brissett5163.21
David Njoku1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku57730
Donovan Peoples-Jones59710
David Bell23350
Kareem Hunt23190
Harrison Bryant46180
Amari Cooper1490
Nick Chubb2390

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota7/1913901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier10848.40
Caleb Huntley10565.61
Cordarrelle Patterson9384.21
Avery Williams12121.00
Marcus Mariota530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus22550
Kyle Pitts14250
Parker Hesse11220
Tyler Allgeier11200
Drake London27170
Damiere Byrd0100
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.13