Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.002
- 44.1%Success rate45.4%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.001
- +0.002EPA / rush+0.004
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.05CPOE-0.74
- 39.0%Third-down rate41.9%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.97
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/35 | 234 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 19 | 118 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| David Bell | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 7/19 | 139 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 84 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Drake London | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.13