Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.007
- 42.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- 42.9%Third-down rate40.7%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.94Points / drive1.59
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 17/40 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 3 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Quentin McCord | 3 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| George Layne | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 7/14 | 86 | 1 | 2 |
| Tim Couch | 7/11 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 27 | 178 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Davis | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| William Green | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48