2002 · Week 17

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

16·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Kelly Holcomb

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.007
  • 42.3%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.59
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.025

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4CLE @ ATL20–23ATL
2018 · W10ATL @ CLE16–28CLE
2014 · W12CLE @ ATL26–24CLE
2010 · W5ATL @ CLE20–10ATL
2006 · W10CLE @ ATL17–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CLE
ATLQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:211153Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 8:1200Turnover0–3
CLEQ1 7:5624Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 7:13630Turnover0–3
CLEQ1 4:251155Punt0–3
ATLQ2 13:1538Punt0–3
CLEQ2 12:04553Touchdown0–10
ATLQ2 9:18972Touchdown7–10
CLEQ2 3:423-2Punt7–10
ATLQ2 1:541157Missed field goal7–10
CLEQ2 0:0500End of half7–10
CLEQ3 15:00524Turnover7–10
ATLQ3 12:26634Field goal10–10
CLEQ3 9:41435Turnover10–10
ATLQ3 7:22418Field goal13–10
CLEQ3 5:1723Turnover13–10
ATLQ3 4:25622Field goal16–10
CLEQ3 1:28910Punt16–10
ATLQ4 11:4637Punt16–10
CLEQ4 10:1732Punt16–10
ATLQ4 9:1827Turnover16–10
CLEQ4 8:18311Touchdown16–17
ATLQ4 6:58616Punt16–17
CLEQ4 4:48271Touchdown16–24
ATLQ4 3:531057Turnover on downs16–24
CLEQ4 0:2330End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick17/4024011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn20673.40
Mike Vick6386.30
T.J. Duckett100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran310771
Quentin McCord33650
Alge Crumpler28340
Trevor Gaylor310300
Warrick Dunn34140
George Layne22110
Reggie Kelly1190

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb7/148612
Tim Couch7/116801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green271786.62
Dennis Northcutt2105.00
Jamel White122.00
Kelly Holcomb4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Davis23360
Kevin Johnson35321
Quincy Morgan24320
Dennis Northcutt13220
Mark Campbell12120
Steve Heiden2290
William Green2490
Jamel White1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.48