Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.155
- 41.9%Success rate36.2%
- -0.021EPA / dropback-0.205
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.086
- 10.2%Explosive rate6.7%
- +3.06CPOE-11.69
- 43.2%Third-down rate33.5%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
- 1.67Points / drive1.05
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:55 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 6:40 | 18 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 12:43 | 6 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CLE | Q2 9:48 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 8:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CLE | Q2 6:54 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 6:05 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| CLE | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 21–7 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 21–7 |
| CLE | Q3 12:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–7 |
| DAL | Q3 11:17 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| CLE | Q3 6:24 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–7 |
| DAL | Q3 5:13 | 8 | 81 | Turnover | 28–7 |
| CLE | Q3 0:38 | 10 | 81 | Field goal | 28–10 |
| DAL | Q4 10:13 | 15 | 82 | End of half | 28–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/32 | 320 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Felix Jones | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 11/24 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29