2020 · Week 4

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

49·38

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

56.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.029
  • 46.9%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.073
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.55CPOE-1.42
  • 45.5%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.87
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1DAL @ CLE33–17DAL
2016 · W9DAL @ CLE35–10DAL
2012 · W11CLE @ DAL20–23DAL
2008 · W1DAL @ CLE28–10DAL
2004 · W2CLE @ DAL12–19DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DAL
DALQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:23469Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 12:13588Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 9:53828Punt7–7
DALQ1 6:10984Touchdown7–14
CLEQ1 2:081080Touchdown14–14
DALQ2 13:0747Turnover14–14
CLEQ2 11:15434Touchdown21–14
DALQ2 9:22124Turnover21–14
CLEQ2 9:11651Touchdown28–14
DALQ2 7:20729Punt28–14
CLEQ2 3:531171Field goal31–14
CLEQ3 15:00865Touchdown38–14
DALQ3 10:513-4Punt38–14
CLEQ3 9:3435Punt38–14
DALQ3 7:55930Turnover on downs38–14
CLEQ3 5:26725Field goal41–14
DALQ3 0:401177Touchdown41–22
CLEQ4 12:24515Punt41–22
DALQ4 8:21779Touchdown41–30
CLEQ4 6:3135Punt41–30
DALQ4 6:001180Touchdown41–38
CLEQ4 3:42150Touchdown49–38
DALQ4 3:25967Turnover49–38
CLEQ4 1:36212End of half49–38

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/3016520
Jarvis Landry1/13710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Ernest Johnson13957.30
Odell Beckham Jr.27336.51
Kareem Hunt11716.52
Nick Chubb6437.20
Dontrell Hilliard5193.80
Baker Mayfield362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.58812
Jarvis Landry56480
Harrison Bryant44370
Austin Hooper57341
Dontrell Hilliard1120

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott41/5850241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12544.50
Tony Pollard3165.31
Dak Prescott2126.00
CeeDee Lamb133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper12161341
CeeDee Lamb57792
Dalton Schultz48721
Ezekiel Elliott88710
Noah Brown44430
Cedrick Wilson Jr.36340
Michael Gallup25290
Blake Bell22240
Tony Pollard12160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.76