Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.029
- 46.9%Success rate46.1%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.073
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.55CPOE-1.42
- 45.5%Third-down rate41.5%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.32Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/30 | 165 | 2 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1/1 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 13 | 95 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 73 | 36.5 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Nick Chubb | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 8 | 81 | 2 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 41/58 | 502 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 12 | 16 | 134 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 79 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76