Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.043
- 39.6%Success rate47.2%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.3%
- -4.22CPOE+3.18
- 30.6%Third-down rate43.3%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.48Points / drive1.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 20/35 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 28 | 95 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 8 | 47 | 2 |
| Josh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 35/50 | 313 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 12 | 15 | 145 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 6 | 12 | 58 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.85