2012 · Week 11

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

20·23

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.043
  • 39.6%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -4.22CPOE+3.18
  • 30.6%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1DAL @ CLE33–17DAL
2020 · W4CLE @ DAL49–38CLE
2016 · W9DAL @ CLE35–10DAL
2008 · W1DAL @ CLE28–10DAL
2004 · W2CLE @ DAL12–19DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DAL
DALQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:16523Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:19413Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:561048Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 4:0174Punt7–0
CLEQ1 0:53851Field goal10–0
DALQ2 12:09610Punt10–0
CLEQ2 9:231040Field goal13–0
DALQ2 5:071122Punt13–0
CLEQ2 1:31315End of half13–0
CLEQ3 15:001041Punt13–0
DALQ3 10:001049Field goal13–3
CLEQ3 4:1636Punt13–3
DALQ3 2:48976Touchdown13–10
CLEQ4 13:4939Punt13–10
DALQ4 11:571144Touchdown13–17
CLEQ4 6:464-9Turnover13–17
DALQ4 5:452-7Turnover13–17
CLEQ4 5:011064Turnover on downs13–17
DALQ4 1:4232Punt19–17
CLEQ4 1:10117Touchdown20–17
DALQ4 1:07821Field goal20–20
CLEQ4 0:0200End of half20–20
DALOT839Punt20–20
CLEOT36Punt20–20
DALOT628Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden20/3521020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson28953.40
Montario Hardesty4235.80
Chris Ogbonnaya111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little34530
Josh Gordon57530
Trent Richardson68490
Benjamin Watson48472
Josh Cooper1260
Alex Smith1120
Josh Cribbs0100
Mohamed Massaquoi0200
Jordan Cameron0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo35/5031310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones14433.11
Tony Romo2105.00
Lance Dunbar5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant12151451
Miles Austin612580
Jason Witten78510
Dwayne Harris33200
Felix Jones23120
Kevin Ogletree13100
Cole Beasley1180
Lance Dunbar2360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.85