2008 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Eagles produced the widest margin at 38 points; the tightest finish was Giants at Vikings, decided by 1.
Briefing7
Colts start Jim Sorgi rather than Peyton Manning, which the model treats as worth about 4.9 points against them.
Titans start Vince Young rather than Kerry Collins, which the model treats as worth about 9.2 points against them.
Vikings start Tarvaris Jackson rather than Gus Frerotte, which the model treats as worth about 1.7 points for them.
Browns start Bruce Gradkowski rather than Derek Anderson, which the model treats as worth about 36.9 points against them.
Saints lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.120, 0.006 clear of second.
Ravens have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.217 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Rams at Falcons, where it rates Rams about 11.9 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
