Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.050
- 38.6%Success rate42.6%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.108
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- 29.2%Third-down rate36.3%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.18Points / drive1.44
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49 points. DAL are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 8/27 | 71 | 0 | 3 |
| Luke McCown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 23/35 | 322 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| ReShard Lee | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02