Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
-2.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.179
- 41.4%Success rate37.1%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.196
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.140
- 7.7%Explosive rate5.8%
- -4.87CPOE-4.22
- 37.1%Third-down rate28.8%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.68Points / drive1.09
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/32 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 24/45 | 169 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 8 | 25 | 1 |
| Jerome Ford | 6 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.84