2024 · Week 1

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

33·17

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

-2.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBrowns
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.179
  • 41.4%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback-0.196
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.140
  • 7.7%Explosive rate5.8%
  • -4.87CPOE-4.22
  • 37.1%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.09
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W4CLE @ DAL49–38CLE
2016 · W9DAL @ CLE35–10DAL
2012 · W11CLE @ DAL20–23DAL
2008 · W1DAL @ CLE28–10DAL
2004 · W2CLE @ DAL12–19DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CLE
DALQ1 15:0049Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:39623Field goal0–3
DALQ1 9:23770Touchdown7–3
CLEQ1 6:55312Punt7–3
DALQ1 4:45831Punt7–3
CLEQ1 1:103-5Punt7–3
DALQ2 15:0032Punt7–3
CLEQ2 12:5638Punt7–3
DALQ2 11:111274Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 5:1533Punt14–3
DALQ2 4:34417Field goal17–3
CLEQ2 2:0636Turnover17–3
DALQ2 1:4631Field goal20–3
CLEQ2 0:5137Punt20–3
DALQ2 0:09212End of half20–3
CLEQ3 15:004-9Opp touchdown27–3
CLEQ3 12:591275Touchdown27–10
DALQ3 8:4233Punt27–10
CLEQ3 7:474-4Punt27–10
DALQ3 6:3534Punt27–10
CLEQ3 5:1741Turnover on downs27–10
DALQ3 3:55519Field goal30–10
CLEQ3 1:27511Turnover on downs30–10
DALQ4 14:07520Field goal33–10
CLEQ4 11:51748Turnover33–10
DALQ4 9:0634Punt33–10
CLEQ4 7:221654Touchdown33–17
DALQ4 0:2900End of half33–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/3217910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott10404.01
Rico Dowdle8263.30
CeeDee Lamb3258.30
Brandin Cooks155.00
Deuce Vaughn144.00
Dak Prescott133.00
Cooper Rush1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb510610
Brandin Cooks47401
Jalen Brooks11180
Hunter Luepke22180
Jake Ferguson35150
Jalen Tolbert12120
Ezekiel Elliott2290
Rico Dowdle1160
KaVontae Turpin0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson24/4516912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford12443.71
Deshaun Watson5397.80
Pierre Strong2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku45440
Jordan Akins34270
Jerry Jeudy38251
Jerome Ford67250
Pierre Strong23200
Amari Cooper29160
Elijah Moore3690
Cedric Tillman1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

6.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.84