2016 · Week 9

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

35·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Cody Kessler

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

49

Model margin

-1.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBrowns
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.050
  • 48.6%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback-0.011
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.131
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +4.07CPOE-1.42
  • 43.8%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.37
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–1 since 1999

Meetings average 49 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1DAL @ CLE33–17DAL
2020 · W4CLE @ DAL49–38CLE
2012 · W11CLE @ DAL20–23DAL
2008 · W1DAL @ CLE28–10DAL
2004 · W2CLE @ DAL12–19DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00562Field goal0–3
DALQ1 12:401070Touchdown7–3
CLEQ1 6:47515Punt7–3
DALQ1 4:3335Punt7–3
CLEQ1 3:01831Missed field goal7–3
DALQ2 14:50974Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 10:02519Punt14–3
DALQ2 6:29967Touchdown21–3
CLEQ2 1:50767Touchdown21–10
DALQ2 0:2300End of half21–10
DALQ3 15:00870Touchdown28–10
CLEQ3 11:30822Punt28–10
DALQ3 7:111059Touchdown35–10
CLEQ3 1:4130Punt35–10
DALQ3 0:171042Punt35–10
CLEQ4 9:4136Punt35–10
DALQ4 7:481139End of half35–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/2724730
Mark Sanchez1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott18925.12
Alfred Morris17563.30
Dak Prescott4205.00
Lucky Whitehead122.00
Mark Sanchez2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten8101341
Cole Beasley66561
Dez Bryant14190
Terrance Williams23190
Geoff Swaim22110
Brice Butler1190
Ezekiel Elliott1150
Gavin Escobar1121

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler19/2720310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson5306.00
Cody Kessler2115.50
Isaiah Crowell640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Crowell44630
Terrelle Pryor57471
Corey Coleman37410
Gary Barnidge33230
Duke Johnson22160
Andrew Hawkins24130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.91