Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
49
Model margin
-1.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.050
- 48.6%Success rate39.2%
- +0.226EPA / dropback-0.011
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.131
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.07CPOE-1.42
- 43.8%Third-down rate36.2%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.52Points / drive1.37
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–1 since 1999
Meetings average 49 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/27 | 247 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 8 | 10 | 134 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 19/27 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Corey Coleman | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.91