Closing spread
NYG -13
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play+0.093
- 38.0%Success rate47.3%
- -0.150EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.050
- 5.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -3.29CPOE+0.84
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 0.93Points / drive2.09
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/39 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Perry | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/43 | 289 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 9 | 80 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75