2020 · Week 12

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

19·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Brandon Allen

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYG -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

-2.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBengals
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.041
  • 42.1%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.122
  • 7.5%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -2.04CPOE+0.03
  • 35.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.87
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. CIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6CIN @ NYG17–7CIN
2016 · W10CIN @ NYG20–21NYG
2012 · W10NYG @ CIN13–31CIN
2008 · W3CIN @ NYG23–26NYG
2004 · W16NYG @ CIN22–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CIN
NYGQ1 15:00976Touchdown7–6
CINQ1 10:0100Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 9:50618Punt7–7
CINQ1 7:28831Punt7–7
NYGQ1 2:38527Punt7–7
CINQ2 14:533-3Punt7–7
NYGQ2 13:201258Turnover7–7
CINQ2 8:40939Field goal7–10
NYGQ2 3:321044Field goal10–10
CINQ2 0:2100End of half10–10
CINQ3 15:0039Punt10–10
NYGQ3 13:161072Field goal13–10
CINQ3 8:0636Punt13–10
NYGQ3 6:38622Punt13–10
CINQ3 3:35722Turnover13–10
NYGQ3 0:32719Field goal16–10
CINQ4 11:3548Punt16–10
NYGQ4 9:40733Punt16–10
CINQ4 5:04317Turnover16–10
NYGQ4 4:1235Field goal19–10
CINQ4 3:54840Touchdown19–17
NYGQ4 2:33414Punt19–17
CINQ4 0:571-13Turnover19–17
NYGQ4 0:4900End of half19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones16/2721300
Colt McCoy6/103100
Golden Tate0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman24943.91
Daniel Jones6193.20
Dion Lewis2105.00
Alfred Morris482.00
Colt McCoy571.40
Sterling Shepard144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram691290
Sterling Shepard78640
Golden Tate49360
C.J. Board11110
Dion Lewis1370
Darius Slayton0200
Wayne Gallman35-30

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen17/2913611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard8324.00
Brandon Allen471.80
Trayveon Williams1-2-2.00
Alex Erickson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins55441
Drew Sample45400
Giovani Bernard23170
Tyler Boyd36150
Trayveon Williams11130
Cethan Carter1150
Samaje Perine1120
A.J. Green0300
Auden Tate0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.24
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-2.40