Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
-2.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.041
- 42.1%Success rate44.2%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.122
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.5%
- -2.04CPOE+0.03
- 35.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.57Points / drive1.87
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. CIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 16/27 | 213 | 0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 6/10 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 24 | 94 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 9 | 129 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 3 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 17/29 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.24
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-2.40