Closing spread
CIN -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
-2.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.088
- 48.0%Success rate41.1%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- +6.81CPOE-1.45
- 47.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.50Points / drive1.28
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 19/28 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Erick All | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/41 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 11 | 57 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 6 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.41