2024 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

17·7

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

Total

46

Model margin

-2.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapGiants
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.088
  • 48.0%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.116
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +6.81CPOE-1.45
  • 47.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.50Points / drive1.28
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W12NYG @ CIN19–17NYG
2016 · W10CIN @ NYG20–21NYG
2012 · W10NYG @ CIN13–31CIN
2008 · W3CIN @ NYG23–26NYG
2004 · W16NYG @ CIN22–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NYG
CINQ1 15:00869Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 11:32417Punt7–0
CINQ1 9:5339Punt7–0
NYGQ1 8:16948Turnover7–0
CINQ1 3:45727Punt7–0
NYGQ2 14:53415Punt7–0
CINQ2 12:35313Punt7–0
NYGQ2 11:01833Punt7–0
CINQ2 6:19533Punt7–0
NYGQ2 3:1447Punt7–0
CINQ2 1:503-2Punt7–0
NYGQ2 0:2100End of half7–0
NYGQ3 15:0048Turnover on downs7–0
CINQ3 13:53313Turnover7–0
NYGQ3 12:331761Touchdown7–7
CINQ3 5:48961Field goal10–7
NYGQ3 0:411042Missed field goal10–7
CINQ4 10:27519Punt10–7
NYGQ4 8:061053Turnover on downs10–7
CINQ4 3:01564Touchdown17–7
NYGQ4 1:52626Missed field goal17–7
CINQ4 0:5100End of half17–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow19/2820800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Burrow45513.81
Chase Brown10535.31
Zack Moss6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins77770
Ja'Marr Chase56720
Andrei Iosivas23360
Chase Brown23110
Erick All23100
Zack Moss1120

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/4120501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones11565.10
Tyrone Tracy Jr.17502.91
Eric Gray3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton611570
Tyrone Tracy Jr.66570
Wan'Dale Robinson511500
Theo Johnson33300
Jalin Hyatt1460
Isaiah Hodgins1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.41