Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+7.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.059
- 43.5%Success rate43.2%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.114
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- 29.5%Third-down rate40.8%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.65Points / drive1.40
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. CIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/37 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 22 | 109 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/32 | 186 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 19 | 31 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.39
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+7.91