Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.002
- 46.8%Success rate41.6%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.000EPA / rush-0.034
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- +0.81CPOE+1.17
- 41.8%Third-down rate34.3%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.27Points / drive1.71
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. CIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 29/46 | 215 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 9 | 14 | 75 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/30 | 199 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 10 | 85 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
6.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50