2012 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

13·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBengals
  • +0.086EPA / play-0.002
  • 46.8%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.000EPA / rush-0.034
  • 10.8%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +0.81CPOE+1.17
  • 41.8%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.71
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. CIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6CIN @ NYG17–7CIN
2020 · W12NYG @ CIN19–17NYG
2016 · W10CIN @ NYG20–21NYG
2008 · W3CIN @ NYG23–26NYG
2004 · W16NYG @ CIN22–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CIN
CINQ1 15:00579Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 12:3435Punt0–7
CINQ1 11:11311Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 10:5348Punt0–14
NYGQ1 8:34522Field goal3–14
CINQ1 5:341149Turnover on downs3–14
NYGQ2 14:1937Punt3–14
CINQ2 12:031460Field goal3–17
NYGQ2 4:171369Field goal6–17
CINQ2 0:1100End of half6–17
NYGQ3 15:0036Punt6–17
CINQ3 13:1143Punt6–17
NYGQ3 11:52437Turnover6–17
CINQ3 9:56523Punt6–17
NYGQ3 7:2210Turnover6–17
CINQ3 7:12312Touchdown6–24
NYGQ3 6:3735Turnover6–24
CINQ3 5:41316Touchdown6–31
NYGQ3 4:201446Turnover on downs6–31
CINQ4 14:1433Punt6–31
NYGQ4 12:07715Turnover6–31
CINQ4 10:4537Punt6–31
NYGQ4 8:081398Touchdown13–31
CINQ4 2:46314End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning29/4621502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown7659.31
Ahmad Bradshaw10575.70
Eli Manning111.00
David Wilson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks914750
Martellus Bennett49370
Andre Brown56290
Victor Cruz34260
Ramses Barden23220
Ahmad Bradshaw34140
Domenik Hixon1280
Rueben Randle2240
Bear Pascoe0100
Travis Beckum0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3019940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis15503.30
Cedric Peerman6213.50
Brian Leonard441.00
Mohamed Sanu133.00
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green710851
Mohamed Sanu46471
Orson Charles11190
Andrew Hawkins35161
Jermaine Gresham34151
Cedric Peerman1190
BenJarvus Green-Ellis2280
Brandon Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

6.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50