Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.074
- 45.3%Success rate40.8%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +2.98CPOE-1.63
- 38.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.86Points / drive1.46
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/29 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 5 | 96 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/44 | 240 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 10 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Tavarres King | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.76