2016 · Week 10

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

20·21

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapGiants
  • +0.052EPA / play-0.074
  • 45.3%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +2.98CPOE-1.63
  • 38.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.46
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6CIN @ NYG17–7CIN
2020 · W12NYG @ CIN19–17NYG
2012 · W10NYG @ CIN13–31CIN
2008 · W3CIN @ NYG23–26NYG
2004 · W16NYG @ CIN22–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00880Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 11:05485Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 8:5833Punt7–7
CINQ1 7:31519Punt7–7
NYGQ1 4:28821Punt7–7
CINQ1 1:09623Punt7–7
NYGQ2 13:301032Turnover on downs7–7
CINQ2 9:4336Punt7–7
NYGQ2 7:45521Turnover7–7
CINQ2 5:1330Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 4:19965Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 1:17530End of half10–14
CINQ3 15:00213Touchdown17–14
NYGQ3 13:5836Punt17–14
CINQ3 12:25641Field goal20–14
NYGQ3 8:5236Punt20–14
CINQ3 7:4749Punt20–14
NYGQ3 5:39615Punt20–14
CINQ3 3:3331Punt20–14
NYGQ3 1:56747Touchdown20–21
CINQ4 14:05821Turnover20–21
NYGQ4 11:3110Turnover20–21
CINQ4 11:2239Punt20–21
NYGQ4 8:53519Punt20–21
CINQ4 6:1767Punt20–21
NYGQ4 3:01538End of half20–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/2920411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill15463.11
Giovani Bernard7172.40
Andy Dalton11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Eifert35960
A.J. Green711681
Giovani Bernard35190
Tyler Boyd24120
Brandon LaFell1290
Tyler Kroft0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning28/4424032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings15875.80
Paul Perkins9313.40
Eli Manning341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.1011971
Will Tye58530
Sterling Shepard57421
Rashad Jennings36220
Jerell Adams33181
Tavarres King1260
Roger Lewis1420
Paul Perkins0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.76