Closing spread
HOU -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.037
- 36.3%Success rate45.3%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.61CPOE+3.93
- 28.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.21Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. HOU are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 12/25 | 265 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 26/31 | 267 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.26