2016 · Week 8

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

13·20

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapTexans
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.079
  • 45.4%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.154
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +0.07CPOE-3.29
  • 42.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.45
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 51 points. HOU are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10DET @ HOU26–23DET
2020 · W12HOU @ DET41–25HOU
2012 · W12HOU @ DET34–31HOU
2008 · W7DET @ HOU21–28HOU
2004 · W2HOU @ DET16–28DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–HOU
DETQ1 15:00934Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 11:163-3Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:12963Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 3:501261Touchdown0–7
DETQ2 12:5632Punt0–7
HOUQ2 11:381138Touchdown0–14
DETQ2 7:04527Punt0–14
HOUQ2 4:08527Punt0–14
DETQ2 1:534-9Punt0–14
HOUQ2 1:21417Turnover0–14
DETQ2 0:32452Field goal3–14
HOUQ2 0:0200End of half3–14
HOUQ3 15:00412Punt3–14
DETQ3 12:2248Punt3–14
HOUQ3 10:21936Field goal3–17
DETQ3 5:511462Touchdown10–17
HOUQ4 14:5032Punt10–17
DETQ4 12:36411Punt10–17
HOUQ4 10:14957Field goal10–20
DETQ4 4:09539Field goal13–20
HOUQ4 2:53425End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4124010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick11565.10
Zach Zenner320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron710790
Theo Riddick811771
Golden Tate79420
Marvin Jones37330
Zach Zenner1150
Anquan Boldin1340

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler20/2918611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller17563.31
Alfred Blue9414.60
Jonathan Grimes2115.50
Brock Osweiler3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins47440
C.J. Fiedorowicz57431
Ryan Griffin33340
Will Fuller14230
Braxton Miller33180
Stephen Anderson22170
Lamar Miller2370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.31