Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.079
- 45.4%Success rate41.9%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.154
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.9%
- +0.07CPOE-3.29
- 42.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 2.05Points / drive1.45
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. HOU are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/41 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 20/29 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 5 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.31