Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.071
- 41.4%Success rate39.8%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- 38.7%Third-down rate32.3%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 1.44Points / drive1.23
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. DET are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:23 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:17 | 5 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 5:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:46 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 3:12 | 4 | 4 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:03 | 9 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 12:09 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q2 6:56 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 1:06 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:34 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 3–7 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q3 11:28 | 2 | 17 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| DET | Q3 10:42 | 8 | 89 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q3 6:38 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| DET | Q3 2:31 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| HOU | Q3 2:16 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| DET | Q4 12:20 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| HOU | Q4 4:41 | 19 | 91 | Turnover on downs | 16–28 |
| DET | Q4 0:36 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 16–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 23/34 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 18/25 | 176 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37