Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.071
- 41.4%Success rate39.8%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- 38.7%Third-down rate32.3%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 1.44Points / drive1.23
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. DET are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 23/34 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 18/25 | 176 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37