2012 · Week 12

Final / OT

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

34·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapLions
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.004
  • 43.9%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.131
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.02CPOE-2.29
  • 38.1%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.65
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 51 points. DET are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10DET @ HOU26–23DET
2020 · W12HOU @ DET41–25HOU
2016 · W8DET @ HOU13–20HOU
2008 · W7DET @ HOU21–28HOU
2004 · W2HOU @ DET16–28DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DET
DETQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:5833Punt0–7
DETQ1 8:2030Punt0–7
HOUQ1 6:4934Punt0–7
DETQ1 5:4936Punt0–7
HOUQ1 4:5939Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:00834Punt0–7
HOUQ2 14:39774Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 10:571083Touchdown7–14
HOUQ2 6:00875Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 2:11259Touchdown14–21
HOUQ2 1:4940End of half14–21
HOUQ3 15:0033Punt14–21
DETQ3 13:311145Field goal14–24
HOUQ3 7:03281Touchdown21–24
DETQ3 6:35414Punt21–24
HOUQ3 5:36645Field goal24–24
DETQ3 2:36890Touchdown24–31
HOUQ4 13:3134Punt24–31
DETQ4 12:03410Punt24–31
HOUQ4 10:0636Punt24–31
DETQ4 9:0147Punt24–31
HOUQ4 7:381597Touchdown31–31
DETQ4 1:55731Punt31–31
HOUQ4 0:3910End of half31–31
DETOT345Turnover31–31
HOUOT737Missed field goal31–31
DETOT514Punt31–31
HOUOT515Turnover31–31
DETOT512Missed field goal31–31
HOUOT549Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub29/4831511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster201025.12
Justin Forsett58717.41
Keshawn Martin11717.00
Matt Schaub2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson9151880
James Casey45380
Kevin Walter26200
Owen Daniels48201
Garrett Graham35170
Keshawn Martin23170
Arian Foster55150
Justin Forsett0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford31/6144120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell5479.41
Mikel Leshoure12322.71
Mike Thomas11414.00
Matthew Stafford273.50
Kevin Smith362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson8171401
Ryan Broyles6121260
Brandon Pettigrew815740
Tony Scheffler56570
Mikel Leshoure22270
Mike Thomas26171
Kevin Smith0100
Joique Bell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.36