Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.004
- 43.9%Success rate45.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.131
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.02CPOE-2.29
- 38.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.89Points / drive1.65
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. DET are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 29/48 | 315 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 87 | 17.4 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 15 | 188 | 0 |
| James Casey | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 8 | 20 | 1 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 31/61 | 441 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 17 | 140 | 1 |
| Ryan Broyles | 6 | 12 | 126 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 8 | 15 | 74 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.36