Closing spread
DET -4.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.038
- 49.6%Success rate39.1%
- +0.267EPA / dropback+0.008
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.120
- 11.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.81CPOE-2.77
- 48.1%Third-down rate38.2%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 3.02Points / drive1.84
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. HOU are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 15/30 | 240 | 2 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 19/33 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 46 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie III | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.20