2024 · Week 10

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

26·23

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

DET -4.5

Total

49

Model margin

-0.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapTexans
  • +0.156EPA / play-0.038
  • 49.6%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback+0.008
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.120
  • 11.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.81CPOE-2.77
  • 48.1%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 3.02Points / drive1.84
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 51 points. HOU are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W12HOU @ DET41–25HOU
2016 · W8DET @ HOU13–20HOU
2012 · W12HOU @ DET34–31HOU
2008 · W7DET @ HOU21–28HOU
2004 · W2HOU @ DET16–28DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–HOU
DETQ1 15:00616Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 12:55833Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 7:4639Punt0–7
HOUQ1 6:22851Field goal0–10
DETQ1 2:091170Touchdown7–10
HOUQ2 10:525-9Field goal7–13
DETQ2 8:2530Turnover7–13
HOUQ2 7:34725Field goal7–16
DETQ2 4:0732Punt7–16
HOUQ2 3:153-15Punt7–16
DETQ2 1:5132Punt7–16
HOUQ2 0:54666Touchdown7–23
DETQ2 0:12315Turnover7–23
HOUQ3 15:0010Turnover7–23
DETQ3 14:56311Turnover7–23
HOUQ3 13:3831Punt7–23
DETQ3 12:44344Touchdown13–23
HOUQ3 11:34540Turnover13–23
DETQ3 8:55212Turnover13–23
HOUQ3 8:18716Punt13–23
DETQ3 3:51639Punt13–23
HOUQ3 0:2431Punt13–23
DETQ4 14:49764Touchdown20–23
HOUQ4 11:3849Punt20–23
DETQ4 8:21643Field goal23–23
HOUQ4 5:01830Missed field goal23–23
DETQ4 1:51518Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff15/3024025

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs19713.70
David Montgomery12322.71
Jared Goff122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sam LaPorta36661
Amon-Ra St. Brown68601
Jameson Williams35530
Jahmyr Gibbs23370
David Montgomery12240

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud19/3323212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon25461.81
Dare Ogunbowale11111.00
C.J. Stroud155.00
Tank Dell1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Metchie III56741
Dalton Schultz34660
Joe Mixon24440
Tank Dell59390
Xavier Hutchinson2460
Cade Stover1220
Robert Woods1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.20