Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.014
- 47.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.156
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- +6.51CPOE-1.27
- 43.5%Third-down rate41.6%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.25Points / drive2.14
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51 points. DET are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 17/25 | 318 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 6 | 7 | 171 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 5 | 85 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Keke Coutee | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kahale Warring | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/42 | 295 | 1 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 12 | 48 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Quintez Cephus | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
49.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.19