2020 · Week 12

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

41·25

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

52.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapLions
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.014
  • 47.8%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.156
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +6.51CPOE-1.27
  • 43.5%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.14
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 51 points. DET are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10DET @ HOU26–23DET
2016 · W8DET @ HOU13–20HOU
2012 · W12HOU @ DET34–31HOU
2008 · W7DET @ HOU21–28HOU
2004 · W2HOU @ DET16–28DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DET
HOUQ1 15:00722Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:10870Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 6:54520Punt6–7
DETQ1 4:4510Opp touchdown6–7
DETQ1 4:3815Turnover6–7
HOUQ1 4:24415Touchdown13–7
DETQ1 2:58655Turnover13–7
HOUQ2 14:5414Turnover13–7
DETQ2 14:50521Touchdown13–14
HOUQ2 12:56755Touchdown20–14
DETQ2 10:18826Punt20–14
HOUQ2 6:15972Field goal23–14
DETQ2 1:44722Punt23–14
HOUQ2 0:0900End of half23–14
DETQ3 15:001368Field goal23–17
HOUQ3 7:24867Field goal26–17
DETQ3 3:1067Punt26–17
HOUQ4 15:00690Touchdown34–17
DETQ4 12:09519Turnover on downs40–17
HOUQ4 10:17134Touchdown41–17
DETQ4 10:071275Touchdown41–25
HOUQ4 6:3239Punt41–25
DETQ4 3:53920Turnover on downs41–25
HOUQ4 1:3500End of half41–25

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson17/2531840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson9374.10
Deshaun Watson8243.00
C.J. Prosise5122.40
Jordan Akins144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller671712
Brandin Cooks55850
Duke Johnson34431
Keke Coutee23170
C.J. Prosise1121
Jordan Akins0200
Kahale Warring0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4229511
Jamal Agnew0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson15553.72
Kerryon Johnson11464.20
Jonathan Williams155.00
Matthew Stafford133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson58890
Kerryon Johnson44520
Marvin Jones612480
Mohamed Sanu44321
Quintez Cephus22270
Jonathan Williams44210
Marvin Hall24160
Jesse James11100
Matthew Stafford0100
Jamal Agnew0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

49.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.19