Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.039
- 45.3%Success rate40.9%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.93CPOE-2.18
- 42.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.91Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–0 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 6-0 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 12:48 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 9:33 | 2 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 8:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q1 6:52 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 5:06 | 13 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 14:07 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 10:24 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 8:35 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 7:44 | 3 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| HOU | Q2 6:09 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q2 2:37 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 7–21 |
| HOU | Q2 0:43 | 3 | 23 | End of half | 7–21 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q3 9:28 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q3 6:03 | 8 | 57 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q3 1:52 | 4 | 43 | Punt | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q4 14:13 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q4 9:51 | 7 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| HOU | Q4 6:26 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| MIN | Q4 2:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–28 |
| HOU | Q4 1:57 | 4 | -8 | Turnover on downs | 21–28 |
| MIN | Q4 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 21/29 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 11/16 | 139 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 11/18 | 182 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 139 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.57