2024 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

7·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

HOU -2

Total

46

Model margin

+2.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapVikings
  • -0.038EPA / play+0.038
  • 39.1%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.135
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.77CPOE+4.00
  • 38.2%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.09
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–0 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 6-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W4MIN @ HOU31–23MIN
2016 · W5HOU @ MIN13–31MIN
2012 · W16MIN @ HOU23–6MIN
2008 · W9HOU @ MIN21–28MIN
2004 · W5MIN @ HOU34–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–MIN
HOUQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
MINQ1 14:24621Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 12:031239Missed field goal0–7
MINQ1 4:31656Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 1:0847Punt0–14
MINQ2 14:5041Punt0–14
HOUQ2 13:20736Punt0–14
MINQ2 8:37532Punt0–14
HOUQ2 5:46736Punt0–14
MINQ2 1:51726Punt0–14
HOUQ2 0:3424End of half0–14
MINQ3 15:00942Touchdown0–21
HOUQ3 10:2232Punt0–21
MINQ3 9:023-10Punt0–21
HOUQ3 7:27867Touchdown7–21
MINQ3 3:561038Field goal7–24
HOUQ4 14:5333Turnover7–24
MINQ4 14:01753Touchdown7–31
HOUQ4 10:14530Turnover on downs7–31
MINQ4 7:49515Field goal7–34
HOUQ4 4:431372Turnover on downs7–34
MINQ4 0:4700End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud20/3121512
Davis Mills7/127900
Stefon Diggs1/11300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers9212.30
C.J. Stroud3124.00
J.J. Taylor133.00
British Brooks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs1012940
Nico Collins410860
Tank Dell56620
Dare Ogunbowale22280
Robert Woods22180
Dalton Schultz25110
Cam Akers1381
J.J. Taylor2200
Xavier Hutchinson0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold17/2818140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones191025.40
Ty Chandler7131.90
Jalen Nailor133.00
Nick Mullens100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson68811
Aaron Jones56461
Jalen Nailor34311
Brandon Powell12130
Trent Sherfield1180
Johnny Mundt1321
Josh Oliver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.51