Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
46
Model margin
+2.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.038
- 39.1%Success rate46.3%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.77CPOE+4.00
- 38.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.84Points / drive2.09
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–0 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 6-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/31 | 215 | 1 | 2 |
| Davis Mills | 7/12 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| British Brooks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| J.J. Taylor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/28 | 181 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 19 | 102 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.51