Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
39
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.042
- 41.9%Success rate42.5%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.253
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- -3.29CPOE+3.80
- 36.9%Third-down rate38.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 1.45Points / drive1.65
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–0 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 6-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 19/42 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Jaelen Strong | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 22/30 | 271 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 20 | 36 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 8 | 127 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.24