2016 · Week 5

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

13·31

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -6

Total

39

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapVikings
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.042
  • 41.9%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.253
  • 6.9%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -3.29CPOE+3.80
  • 36.9%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.65
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–0 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 6-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3HOU @ MIN7–34MIN
2020 · W4MIN @ HOU31–23MIN
2012 · W16MIN @ HOU23–6MIN
2008 · W9HOU @ MIN21–28MIN
2004 · W5MIN @ HOU34–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–MIN
MINQ1 15:00979Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 11:2333Punt0–7
MINQ1 10:201050Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 6:2835Punt0–14
MINQ1 5:013-2Punt0–14
HOUQ1 2:4235Missed field goal0–14
MINQ1 1:171458Field goal0–17
HOUQ2 9:5831Opp touchdown0–24
HOUQ2 8:46916Field goal3–24
MINQ2 5:423-6Punt3–24
HOUQ2 3:411037Field goal6–24
MINQ2 1:3728End of half6–24
HOUQ3 15:0034Punt6–24
MINQ3 13:45537Punt6–24
HOUQ3 10:3531Turnover6–24
MINQ3 9:45613Punt6–24
HOUQ3 7:21956Turnover on downs6–24
MINQ3 3:51965Touchdown6–31
HOUQ4 14:09611Punt6–31
MINQ4 11:56625Punt6–31
HOUQ4 8:151275Touchdown13–31
MINQ4 3:46526End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler19/4218411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue6396.50
Lamar Miller8202.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
C.J. Fiedorowicz48610
DeAndre Hopkins59561
Jaelen Strong59390
Braxton Miller11120
Ryan Griffin2680
Lamar Miller1340
Will Fuller1640

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford22/3027120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata14553.91
Jerick McKinnon20361.80
Cordarrelle Patterson177.00
Sam Bradford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen781271
Matt Asiata33460
Cordarrelle Patterson46391
Jarius Wright44320
Kyle Rudolph24150
Jerick McKinnon13100
Charles D. Johnson1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.24