Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play-0.022
- 50.0%Success rate41.4%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- 52.5%Third-down rate38.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.26Points / drive1.44
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–0 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. HOU are 0-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:56 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:51 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 14:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q2 12:32 | 10 | 47 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 6:06 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q2 2:59 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 0:36 | 4 | 32 | End of half | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q3 12:36 | 3 | 39 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| HOU | Q3 11:50 | 9 | 94 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q3 6:52 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 21–7 |
| HOU | Q3 3:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q3 2:17 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 21–7 |
| HOU | Q4 14:42 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| MIN | Q4 11:31 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 21–14 |
| HOU | Q4 8:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–14 |
| MIN | Q4 7:48 | 3 | 59 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| HOU | Q4 6:49 | 13 | 68 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| MIN | Q4 3:11 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 28–21 |
| HOU | Q4 2:21 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| MIN | Q4 1:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–28 |
| HOU | Q4 0:13 | 1 | -5 | End of half | 28–28 |
| MIN | OT | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–28 |
| HOU | OT | 6 | 30 | Punt | 28–28 |
| MIN | OT | 6 | 81 | Touchdown | 34–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 36/50 | 396 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 27/43 | 372 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 1 |
| David Carr | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.66