2020 · Week 4

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

31·23

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapTexans
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.093
  • 49.1%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.025EPA / rush-0.193
  • 11.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +4.45CPOE+6.51
  • 41.2%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 74.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.25
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–0 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. HOU are 0-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3HOU @ MIN7–34MIN
2016 · W5HOU @ MIN13–31MIN
2012 · W16MIN @ HOU23–6MIN
2008 · W9HOU @ MIN21–28MIN
2004 · W5MIN @ HOU34–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:45627Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:483-3Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:18756Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 5:05616Punt7–0
MINQ1 2:4834Punt7–0
MINQ1 1:07622Field goal10–0
HOUQ2 12:41943Field goal10–3
MINQ2 8:461275Touchdown17–3
HOUQ2 1:53748Field goal17–6
MINQ2 0:2713End of half17–6
MINQ3 15:0034Punt17–6
HOUQ3 12:49773Touchdown17–13
MINQ3 9:47548Missed field goal17–13
HOUQ3 7:24548Field goal17–16
MINQ3 5:30875Touchdown24–16
HOUQ3 0:4137Punt24–16
MINQ4 14:10673Touchdown31–16
HOUQ4 10:501182Touchdown31–23
MINQ4 5:52725Punt31–23
HOUQ4 2:531164Turnover on downs31–23
MINQ4 1:1200End of half31–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins16/2226010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook271304.82
Alexander Mattison7172.41
Adam Thielen188.00
Kirk Cousins451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen8101141
Justin Jefferson451030
Kyle Rudolph22270
Dalvin Cook22160
Irv Smith0100
Bisi Johnson0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson20/3330020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson16633.90
Duke Johnson5244.80
Deshaun Watson591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller671081
Jordan Akins33460
Kenny Stills24391
Randall Cobb25360
David Johnson23290
Darren Fells22210
Duke Johnson34210
Brandin Cooks0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

48.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.84