Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.093
- 49.1%Success rate47.8%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.193
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- +4.45CPOE+6.51
- 41.2%Third-down rate43.5%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.30Points / drive2.25
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–0 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. HOU are 0-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16/22 | 260 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 27 | 130 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 10 | 114 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 103 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 20/33 | 300 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 6 | 7 | 108 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.84