Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.069
- 42.1%Success rate43.9%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.66CPOE-0.02
- 37.4%Third-down rate38.1%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.89
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 6–0 since 1999
MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. HOU are 0-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 16/30 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 86 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 18/32 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80