2012 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

23·6

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapTexans
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.069
  • 42.1%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.66CPOE-0.02
  • 37.4%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.89
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 6–0 since 1999

MIN have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.5 points. HOU are 0-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3HOU @ MIN7–34MIN
2020 · W4MIN @ HOU31–23MIN
2016 · W5HOU @ MIN13–31MIN
2008 · W9HOU @ MIN21–28MIN
2004 · W5MIN @ HOU34–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00934Field goal0–3
MINQ1 10:50883Touchdown7–3
HOUQ1 6:1934Punt7–3
MINQ1 4:44516Punt7–3
HOUQ1 2:21749Turnover7–3
MINQ2 13:361141Field goal10–3
HOUQ2 8:15428Punt10–3
MINQ2 6:02629Punt10–3
HOUQ2 2:303-8Punt10–3
MINQ2 1:39421Field goal13–3
HOUQ2 0:3730Punt13–3
MINQ2 0:0400End of half13–3
MINQ3 15:00837Field goal16–3
HOUQ3 11:3133Punt16–3
MINQ3 9:441-3Turnover16–3
HOUQ3 9:37414Punt16–3
MINQ3 7:5854Punt16–3
HOUQ3 5:431046Field goal16–6
MINQ3 0:26845Punt16–6
HOUQ4 12:1839Punt16–6
MINQ4 10:451059Touchdown23–6
HOUQ4 4:44610Turnover23–6
MINQ4 3:14517Turnover on downs23–6
HOUQ4 0:2100End of half23–6

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder16/3017410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson25863.40
Christian Ponder7486.90
Toby Gerhart8313.91
Jarius Wright188.00
Matt Asiata111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright59530
Michael Jenkins23410
Kyle Rudolph36391
Jerome Simpson45320
Toby Gerhart1250
Adrian Peterson1240
Devin Aromashodu0100
John Carlson0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub18/3217800
T.J. Yates0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate4174.30
Arian Foster10151.50
Justin Forsett144.00
T.J. Yates1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson710970
Owen Daniels37270
Arian Foster23140
Garrett Graham22140
Kevin Walter13120
James Casey1160
DeVier Posey1660
Ben Tate1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.80