Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 14:52 | 4 | 16 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:25 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:28 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:40 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 5:24 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:18 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 11:37 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 9:12 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 7:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:09 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 6:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 4:50 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–0 |
| CAR | Q2 3:12 | 1 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 3:00 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q2 0:53 | 4 | 39 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| LV | Q3 14:51 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| CAR | Q3 13:25 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LV | Q3 11:25 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–3 |
| CAR | Q3 10:26 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| LV | Q3 9:47 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| CAR | Q3 8:55 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–6 |
| LV | Q3 6:48 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 14–6 |
| CAR | Q3 1:30 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–6 |
| LV | Q3 0:34 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| CAR | Q4 13:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–6 |
| LV | Q4 12:05 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 14–6 |
| CAR | Q4 8:17 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–6 |
| LV | Q4 5:59 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 14–6 |
| CAR | Q4 3:33 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| LV | Q4 1:49 | 7 | 27 | Missed field goal | 17–6 |
| CAR | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 7/27 | 72 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 19 | 140 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.