Closing spread
LV -3
Total
48
Model margin
+0.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.019
- 47.4%Success rate45.8%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.082
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.18CPOE+2.88
- 45.5%Third-down rate39.5%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.49Points / drive2.21
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.6 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 22/30 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 25 | 93 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 22/34 | 269 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 23 | 97 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 6 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.52