2020 · Week 1

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

34·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LV -3

Total

48

Model margin

+0.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.019
  • 47.4%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.082
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.18CPOE+2.88
  • 45.5%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 59.9%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 2.49Points / drive2.21
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.6 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3CAR @ LV36–22CAR
2016 · W12CAR @ OAK32–35RAIDERS
2012 · W16OAK @ CAR6–17CAR
2008 · W10CAR @ OAK17–6CAR
2004 · W9OAK @ CAR27–24RAIDERS
2000 · W17CAR @ OAK9–52RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–CAR
LVQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CARQ1 14:04734Field goal0–3
LVQ1 10:02875Touchdown7–3
CARQ1 5:471063Touchdown7–9
LVQ1 0:571473Field goal10–9
CARQ2 8:13722Field goal10–12
LVQ2 5:03875Touchdown17–12
CARQ2 1:541062Field goal17–15
CARQ3 15:0037Punt17–15
LVQ3 12:42525Field goal20–15
CARQ3 9:383-10Punt20–15
LVQ3 9:04743Touchdown27–15
CARQ3 5:29950Touchdown27–15
CARQ3 0:0910Touchdown27–15
CARQ3 0:04111Touchdown27–15
CARQ3 0:0000Touchdown27–15
CARQ4 15:00629Touchdown27–22
LVQ4 12:32511Punt27–22
CARQ4 9:27277Touchdown27–30
LVQ4 8:291057Touchdown34–30
CARQ4 4:08524Turnover on downs34–30
LVQ4 1:1138Punt34–30
CARQ4 0:08219End of half34–30

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr22/3023910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs25933.73
Devontae Booker4297.30
Henry Ruggs III2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Henry Ruggs III35550
Josh Jacobs46460
Darren Waller68450
Nelson Agholor11231
Devontae Booker33230
Hunter Renfrow22210
Jalen Richard11150
Bryan Edwards1190
Jason Witten1120

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater22/3426910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey23974.22
Teddy Bridgewater4266.50
Curtis Samuel155.00
Alex Armah210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen681141
DJ Moore49540
Christian McCaffrey34380
Curtis Samuel58380
Ian Thomas22160
Seth Roberts1250
Chris Manhertz1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.52